Me too. I doubt anyone can predict it.
The BBC was funny with their previously article. I hope anyone check the exchange rate before lapping up “it has fallen again”.
Ah well... The risk of a no deal Brexit has decreased (allegedly) so the pound has risen.
Sensitive as always.
I have balls but they're not crystal!data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP///yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP///yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7
We will be out of the EU. The pound will be close to unity with the EU, but within 5 years it will be back to 1.40 to 1.45 Euros.
I sense a degree of unwarranted optimism throughout this thread. Much as is generated by Leavers and No.10. Economists are lousy forecasters (Keynes felt that they made astrologers look good.), but there is a general consensus building to suggest that we are heading for a global recession. Further, that is likely to be a recession like no other, for there will be none of the normal remedies and stimuli to ensure a recovery. They were all used up trying, unsuccessfully, I may add, to counter the 2008 crash. Plus, and a very big plus, it doesn't look there there will be any bail-outs next time around.
And at a time when we need friends, a Brexit would leave us without any.
We are just leaving the EU, not planet Earth nor declaring war, and so on. I agree, I suspect a recession is on its way. The EU won't provide a safety net, just like last time it actually shackles some of its members and won't allow for enough local control to mitigate the measures. The UK was already in a better place by not being part of the euro, that won't change either.
Unfortunately the EU is not, and never has been, a friend.
There's a possibility of a global recession. The major influence will be the USA: will Trump continue his trade war against China and will he settle the Mexico border immigrant influx? The former is probably have the most affect on global trade. This is a different recession than 2008 though, so how it will be resolved is entirely different.
I honestly don't believe that being in or out of the EU will have much affect on us in a global recession. Of course, if we are out of the EU and the USA does come up with its trade deal promise, then we may be better buffered than the EU. US natural gas is dirt cheap ($2.50 for approximately 40kWh of liquefied natural gas) and there's always cheap chicken and loads of soya beans!!!