FPTP

Pecker

First up, forget the hype about any party being finished.

I remember Paddy Ashdown appearing on Newsnight after a by election defeat (I think when Blair was really on the rise), and the loss was so heavy that a UNS would have left them with minus votes.  They went on to get around 20% at the next election.

Another time the Conservatives did so badly that a UNS had Michael Howard left as their only MP.  They won the next election.

The LDs have been kicked for (a) supporting the Cons, and that'll fade, and (b) backing down on tuition fees, that too will fade.

Is it possible they'll disappear?  Maybe, you can't rule anything out.  But it'd be daft to say its definitely/probably going to happen based on one general election result.

FPTP is indeed unfit for purpose.  Clearly the Cons won't change it.  But we'll have to see what pressures await.

As for:

I strongly suspect, with DC's tiny majority, we'll see majority government which is FAR less stable than the previous 'messy' coalition.

Steve W

krish

but 50% of the national vote of the country where they exclusively stood (which still shows up FPTP in a bad light there too)

Sonic67

Liberals will spend some time in opposition, get a new leader and start making gains again. Conservatives will start losing by-elections and be back to how John Major and his lot were. Replacing FPTP is going to be a recurring theme.

Sonic67

I'm not sure the damage to the LDs will fade that quickly.

I actually think they have been badly treated by the electorate.  They unquestionably did the right thing in 2010 and I think their conduct in office has been OK.  On tuition fees they did the right thing ultimately.

But you have to ask, what is their purpose?

If it is just to support a larger party to get a majority, then why not just vote for the party you'd like them to work with?

Despite their talk of red lines, their manifesto is just a wish list.  They caved on tuition fees, so the electorate will continue to view them with suspicion on being able to deliver their manifesto

The electorate have judged them, and the electorate has a long memory.

gibbsy

Love it, even The Mirror seems to be on UKIP's side.

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/ampp3d/the-chart-that-shows-how-5658134

What's the secret? Get all your supporters to move to one place.

brunation

If PR had been in place for this election perhaps there would have been more leaders explaining their policies and costings. All we seem to have had, especially over the closing days, was very negative campaigning warning the electorate as a whole of a Scottish takeover of parliament. With PR it would certainly be the policies that matter.

UKIP polled 2% more votes in Wales than Plaid Cymru. Plaid got three seats, UKIP none.

Sonic67

See p38 of the SNP manifesto.

brunation

The various parties arranged by voter numbers:
Conservatives: 11.3M Votes - 331 seats.
Labour: 9.3M Votes - 232 seats
UKIP: 3.8M Votes - 1 seat
Lib Dem: 2.4M Votes - 8 seats
SNP: 1.5M Votes - 56 seats
Greens: 1.2M Votes - 1 seat
Plaid: 181.7K Votes - 3 seats

Rasczak

During the wee small hours, a point was made on TV that the LD did not think they would be in govt. in 2010 and so had not thought through the policy properly.

IronGiant

We shall see in time. Thirty years after Thatcher and the Tories are still trying to rebuild in Scotland so I doubt the Lib Dems are coming back anytime soon. With just 8 MPs they will struggle to find a voice but much does depend on where Labour goes next.

For messy coalition I was referring to what could have been, i.e. a three party (or more) coalition. I know you fancied a Labour, Lib Dem, SNP arrangement but that would never have worked. At least here we get stability and, if Cameron has got anything about him, he will work with the other parties on an issue-by-issue basis to ensure he doesn't fall foul of a minority of his backbenchers. Between 2007-11, during the SNP minority, the Tories had a good working relationship with Alex Salmond's team so I suspect additional stability can be achieved that way.

One more thing to add to the mix. Aside from the SNP, Cameron is facing a shattered opposition. The DUP can probably be persuaded to support him on many issues. Labour will now focus on their leadership campaign and re-focusing the party. The Lib Dems will gave to start the long, slow rebuilding of trust. And UKIP, with its singleton ex-Tory MP, can be relied upon to vote with the Tories on 90% of issues without anything in return. Yes, Cameron only has a small majority, but his opponents are weak.